Proposed 'guest worker' plan already bearing fruit

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Sensing change, migrants rush to the border

Mexicans hurrying to Arizona anticipating passage of guest-worker plan...

Apparently the GOP really can't win for losing on this issue. 'Guest workers' get them in trouble with their base, and a fence gets them in trouble with future generations of possible Mexican voters.

To me, it seems the political calculation should be as follows: Try to appease those who will vote for you in the short term, rather than those who won't, because if you get voted out of office the long term won't much matter. But that's probably too black-and-white, huh?

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Joe -

I suggest you check out Kausfiles regularly. He's a Democrat who is hawkish on immigration and argues that the GOP strategy is pretty good.

1. In the short term, members of the House excite their base during a traditionally low turnout election.

2. In the long term, figureheads like President Bush or John McCain can continue to assure hispanics that one segment of the GOP wants a guest worker plan. That way, they won't flea to the Democrats - rather, they'll look at each politician closely.

The Democrats have been playing this pretty cleverly as well...they made sure the Felony proposal and the good samaritan proposal in the House made it to a vote. That's what really got the protests started.

Thanks for the recommendation on Kaus, VC, I will definitely put him on my periodic reading list. That is an interesting analysis.

This definitely has not been a bad issue for the Democrats. I've heard it has been a pretty good recruitment tool as the rallies.

What is interesting is, you have to think some potential Democratic nominees have at least daydreamed about running to the right of the Senate GOP and President Bush in 08. Probably a few in 06 as well.

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