Immigrants, Numbers and Crime

| | Comments (37) | TrackBacks (0)

In this post we're going to cover a few issues related to the problem of illegal immigration in the U.S.

First is crime. Last week's Guard the Borders Blogburst homes in on the simple fact that some illegal aliens commit crimes in America, and more Americans have died as a result of illegal immigration than from the battle in Iraq:


... illegal aliens in the United States are more than fourteen times as lethal (14.48 actually) as a full scale armed conflict.

Some pro-immigration advocates attempt to twist the question by asking "So you think Hispanics are more likely to commit crimes than people of other ethncities?"

But that is not the question at all. The question is: Would those specific crimes have been committed if those specific illegal aliens were not in the U.S.? The clear answer to that question is - "no". If the perpetrator was not here, the crime would not have been committed.

The documentary, Cochise County, USA: Cries From the Border, depicts the real-life suffering that has been caused by the massive influx of illegal aliens across the Arizona-Mexico border. Stories include families who own land on the border, land which they can no longer use, and property which has been destroyed by the invaders. The point has nothing to do with the race of the invaders. The point is simply if the illegals were not coming across, these American citizens would not have been victimized.

(Anyone who wants to watch the documentary can let me know and I will lend them the DVD.)

Whether we are talking about destruction in the Tucson sector, or gang violence in Sterling, Virginia, the fact of the matter is the crimes identified in these cases are definitely being committed by illegal aliens. Maybe the criminals are a tiny segment of the whole. Maybe local citizens are committing more crimes - who cares? The issue at hand is people in the U.S. illegally who are committing crimes here.

If they did not have a safe landing area here, they would not be committing crimes here.

Next is the question of "numbers."

After the high point of immigration into the U.S. from 1835-1920, America closed its gates for 40 years. Several factors illustrate the differences between then and now, but the halt to immigration was by far the most decisive. Immigrants assimilated into the dominant culture because the latter remained numerically dominant. They became Americans because the culture they moved into was American.

In the latest Guard the Borders blogburst, Nan Matthis notes that "simple math" explains the current concern.


Going By The Numbers
by Nancy Matthis

Understanding the impact of illegal immigration does not depend on accepting partisan opinions. It is just the result of doing some simple math.

In a previous article, Illegals Deadlier Than War On Terror, we compared the numbers of United States citizens killed by illegal aliens to the tally of our troops killed in the war on terror. In response to that article, one of our readers wrote asking whether we had seen the video produced by NumbersUSA titled Immigration by the Numbers. He asked, “I wonder how accurate it is?”

This widely distributed video uses gumballs in a jar to visually demonstrate the impact of numbers that increase exponentially rather than linearly. These are mathematical concepts that are immediately meaningful to folk with a technical background, but may be harder to understand for others. The answer to our reader’s question is that the video IS accurate. It is not based on partisan opinion. It is just a very graphic illustration of an algebraic equation.

You can view a clip from the video here. Roy Beck of NumbersUSA is not depending on any esoteric data. He’s just doing the math, based on the US Census numbers, which actually grossly UNDERESTIMATE the number of illegals in the United States.


Read all about the numbers, here.

Finally, Vox Day observes that assimilation is most in question:


The increasingly lawless behavior of the pro-immigration forces in America is both informative and telling. It is a clear warning of precisely what these forces stand for as well as what they hope America will become. For the problem is not that America is being invaded by millions of semi-civilized aliens with no cultural or historical ties to American traditions and liberties, or respect for them, but that America is being transformed by these invaders.

As Umberto Eco pointed out in his 1990 essay entitled ''Migrazioni,'' there is a crucial difference between immigration and migration. In the case of immigration, it is the immigrant who is transformed. This was the case in historical immigrations from Ireland, Germany, Italy and Scandinavia, where the immigrating generation quickly adapted to the language and culture of its new land and the second and third generations were all but impossible to distinguish from Americans who could trace their roots back to the original colonies.

This adaptation was made possible by three factors. First, the desire of the immigrants to become Americans. This can be seen in the readiness with which past immigrants changed their names and quickly adopted English, to such an extent that the third generation rarely spoke more than a word or two of their grandfather's tongue. Second, the similarities between the Western, Christian cultures of Europe and the Western, Christian culture of the United States. Third, the number and the proportion of immigrants was smaller, for example, 3.5 million Irish immigrants arriving over a 60-year period versus more than 9.8 million Mexicans entering in the last two decades.

Obviously, this is not immigration, this is a migration, and in the case of a migration, it is the destination that is transformed, not the immigrants.

Destination transformation is a perverse, but common consequence of migratory behavior. While it seems counterintuitive to leave one place in favor of another, then seek to recreate the very situation one previously fled, this is actually normal human behavior. And despite the inflammatory attacks on those who very reasonably oppose this transformation, there is nothing wrong with opposing it. Does it make a Washingtonian racist to oppose the Californication of his state? Is a Naples, Fla. resident bigoted simply because he dislikes sitting in gridlocked traffic all winter as his city is temporarily transformed into a southern suburb of Minneapolis?

Of course not. The real distinction between Brown America and America is not racial, but rather cultural and ideological. The problem with Brown America is not that sunscreen sales will take a hit, but that Brown America will be indistinguishable from every other semi-civilized third-world country in its disregard for human liberty, its contempt for law and limited government, and its short-sighted abuse of society's most productive classes. One can already see this situation developing in Mexifornia, and the fact that Brown America's most enthusiastic proponents so readily demonstrate their disdain for elemental American concepts such as the freedom of speech and the right to free assembly highlights the great ideological divide.


Read all of Vox Day's column here.

I grant the characterization of "brown" does little to clarify the problem. It muddles the problem. But Vox Day's wrath is focused on a distinct subset of the pro-illegal movement - the subgroup that promotes alien ideology, especially with regard to U.S. law, as superior.

My take is: The United States is a singular example of intelligent government, despite all its manifest flaws. Those who come here need to play by the same rules as everyone else.

0 TrackBacks

Listed below are links to blogs that reference this entry: Immigrants, Numbers and Crime.

TrackBack URL for this entry: http://novatownhall.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/796

37 Comments

zimzo said:

This is your looniest argument yet. What about all the crimes committed by people who are blonde? If those blonde people were not in the country, those crimes would not have been committed! In fact, almost 100% of crimes ouside of prisons are committed by people who are not in jail. If only all us were in jail, then there would not have been any crimes! And of course Puffy is right that you have to weigh all of the potential crimes against all of the potential prevention of crime which is...impossible, outside of a science fiction novel.

Sheesh, I guess that argument must have sounded brilliant when thought it up. It sounds like you're just starting off with the premise that immigrants are bad and trying to come up with outlandish arguments to support your thesis. It sounds kind of desperate.

But as looney as your arguments are, you found the one guy that could come up with loonier arguments. Good old Vox Day. here's a little tidbit called "Why women shouldn't vote Reason 345 & 346"

"Far too many women are fascists at heart. You can see this at work in almost every female-dominant organization and in the way that women's organizations constantly attempt to force change on everyone, men and women, who don't want it. Some people think the Founding Fathers had never even considered the thought of allowing women to vote, that it was just a historical oversight on the part of some unconsciously sexist men. I suspect that they knew perfectly well what they were doing, given the obvious connection between the female franchise and the West's continental drift into socialism. There is a reason why a fascist demagogue like Benito Mussolini made suffragism the very first point in the Fascist Manifesto, after all."

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2005/04/why-women-shouldnt-vote-reason-345-346.html

But more to the point, here is Vox Day on immigration:

"[Bush] lied when he said: "Massive deportation of the people here is unrealistic – it's just not going to work." Not only will it work, but one can easily estimate how long it would take. If it took the Germans less than four years to rid themselves of 6 million Jews, many of whom spoke German and were fully integrated into German society, it couldn't possibly take more than eight years to deport 12 million illegal aliens, many of whom don't speak English and are not integrated into American society."
http://americablog.blogspot.com/2006/05/conservative-commentator-uses-hitlers.html

Even Vox Day's father, the editor of World Net Daily, was so disgusted by his invoking the Holocaust to support deporting immigrants, that he re-edited the piece.

So Vox Day thinks we can learn something from the Nazis about how to treat people. These are the kinds of people you are allying yourself with, Joe.

It's illuminating that your entire argument consists of changing the subject.

There is a big difference between blondes and illegal aliens, in that the illegal aliens are not supposed to be here. The blondes may be perfectly within their rights. Duh. That's why the outraged articles about crimes committed by illegals - the assumed point, which obviously has escaped you, is if our authorities had been doing their jobs the crimes would not have been committed. Geez, I did not think I'd have to spell that out.

RE: Vox Day, he's written lots of good stuff along with the crazy stuff. Nice job completely sidestepping his argument. That says something for Vox Day, does it not?

zimzo said:

Actually, Joe you're the one changing the subject. If you can't prove that illegal immigrants commit a disproportionate number of crimes, then you say well, it's bad enough they commit any crimes. So does that mean if one immigrant commits one crime that wouldn't otherwise have been committed (setting aside the possibility of one immigrant preventing one crime that wouldn't have been committed) that justifies some of the draconian anti-immigrant policies you support? That's basically what you're arguning.

If your real argument is simply that they aren't supposed to be here, then that should be your argument. But you know simply saying "they shouldn't be here" is not a very persuasive argument so instead you keep trying to pile on other dubious accusations. As I said, for some reason you start from the idea that you don't want them here and then you try to justify it, instead of weighing the pros and cons of their being here and the pros and cons of the measures to "get rid" of them as Vox Day puts it.

As far as Vox Day goes I don't see how you can give any credence whatsoever to anything he says when he uses the Holocaust as an example of what we should do here. I suppose next you'll be telling me Iranian President Ahmadinejad has "written lots of good stuff along with the crazy stuff." It's not sidestepping the argument to question the credibility of your witness. If I started quoting Ahmadinejad to you, tell me you wouldn't attack me for it and discount everything he said.

I didn't think I would have to say that referring to people of a different ethnic background as "semi-civilized" itself discounts his "argument."

And Joe I have no idea what alien ideology is except to say that Vox Day's ideology seems pretty alien to me.

Jack said:

As far as I know, we do not keep statistics on crimes committed by illegal immigrants. I think we should. Do you disagree, Zimzo?

Stay Puft Marshmallow Man said:

"Maybe local citizens are committing more crimes - who cares?"

well, the problem with this line of reasoning is the same as with your, "ban gay marriage to save marriage" argument. Just as if you want to preserve marriage, you ought to focus on divorce, if you're interested in crime prevention, you ought to start by focusing on the group that's committing the most crime.

from your article,

"the third generation rarely spoke more than a word or two of their grandfather's tongue. Second, the similarities between the Western, Christian cultures of Europe and the Western, Christian culture of the United States."

the third reason, that this immigration is on a larger scale, is true, signifying that the writer can count. but these first two items are so completely asinine...

3rd generation? How many third generation hispanic immigrants do you know who don't speak english? but that's not good enough, if the third generation knows more than a word or two of their grandparent's language, they've failed to assimilate. bilingualism is real threat to the american way of life, which is what? ignorance and cheesepuffs?

speaking on ignorance, vox day goes on to claim that
hispanics don't have the same european/christian tradition? Mexico has a higher proportion of people who identify as christians than the US does.

(78% christian in the US, vs. 95% christian in Mexico, according to CIA factbook)

and where do you think they picked up that spanish language? the Incas? No. Spain! and which on continent is Spain located?

not Western?? Where is Mexico on a map? It's right between China, France, and Iraq, isn't it? ...but we know what's really meant by 'Western': America, England, Australia, and token Japan, yeah? (Sorry, Mexico, the world's non-whites/non-english speakers are already represented in THIS clique)

vox day : give me a goddamn break

and all this is great fun, but it doesn't bring anyone any closer to a solution. obviously the situation isn't ideal, it's not ideal for people freaked out by immigration, nor is it ideal for the immigrants themselves.

...but let's say you could prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that immigrants are responsible for every problem in this country from the iraq war to syphilis. let's say you managed to show that immigrants caused katrina and the holocaust. so what? what're you going to do about it?

kevin said:

Jack, i don't know if i can find it again but the link is in my post or comment a little while back. On those stats, the majority of crimes commited are noted as being here I believe.

zimzo said:

Another great article from Joe's favorite source World Net Daily:

A devil food is turning our kids into homosexuals

"There's a slow poison out there that's severely damaging our children and threatening to tear apart our culture. The ironic part is, it's a "health food," one of our most popular. Now, I'm a health-food guy, a fanatic who seldom allows anything into his kitchen unless it's organic. I state my bias here just so you'll know I'm not anti-health food. The dangerous food I'm speaking of is soy. Soybean products are feminizing, and they're all over the place. You can hardly escape them anymore."

Read the rest and have a good laugh here:

http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53327

kevin said:

Sorry for the double comment, I put it on the wrong post!

Jack, please excuse my laziness (hunger), I was in the middle of a pound of steamed shrip with Old Bay. Now that I'm finished I can show you just how lazy I was:

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/iofcjs00.pdf

However, this is a good start in my search for actual facts. There are plenty of blogs I can quote, probably, written by people with an axe to grind on one side or the other. . .

;)

Charles Author Profile Page said:

One out of every 12 fatal car crashes is caused by an illegal immigrant.

A soldier just back from Iraq was killed last week by an Illegal immigrant driver, who previously had been detained on a drunk driving charge but was "aquitted" when the officer forgot to file the "refusal of DUI" paperwork.

Because it was in Maryland, the officer never checked if the person was illegal, and illegals are allowed to have drivers licenses.

If that illegal immigrant had been discovered and been deported in February, one more of our soldiers would be alive today.


Here are FBI crime statistics:

2006 (First Quarter) INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants

CRIME STATISTICS 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.

83% of warrants for murder in Phoenix are for illegal aliens.

86% of warrants for murder in Albuquerque are for illegal aliens.

75% of those on the most wanted list in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Albuquerque are illegal aliens.

24.9% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally

40.1% of all inmates in Arizona detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally

48.2% of all inmates in New Mexico detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally

29% (630,000) convicted illegal alien felons fill our state and federal prisons at a cost of $1.6 billion annually

53% plus of all investigated burglaries reported in California, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Texas are perpetrated by illegal aliens.

50% plus of all gang members in Los Angeles are illegal aliens from south of the border.

71% plus of all apprehended cars stolen in 2005 in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California were stolen by Illegal aliens or “transport coyotes".

47% of cited/stopped drivers in California have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 47%, 92% are illegal aliens.

63% of cited/stopped drivers in Arizona have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 63%, 97% are illegal aliens

66% of cited/stopped drivers in New Mexico have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 66% 98% are illegal aliens.

It wouldn't matter anyway if the "rate" of crime was less for illegal immigrants than for citizens. Illegal immigrants are already committing a crime, they are here illegally.

But it does appear that people who are here illegally (and therefore have already shown a propensity to commit crimes, to lie, and to skirt the law), do tend to commit more crimes on average.

Charles Author Profile Page said:

The statistics I cited in the previous post are all from THIS SITE: New FBI Statistics on Crimes Committed by Illegal Aliens

There is obviously at least one thing wrong with the information: There is no "INS" anymore. I can't vouch for any of the information, I also haven't found any proof they are wrong either. I should have made this clear in my post, I apologize.

kevin said:

yeah, 95% of warrants for murder in CA are for illegal immigrants??? I don't know dude, first of all. Second of all, a warrant is just that. Someone could just as easily issue a warrant for you for murder, I'm sure you haven't committed one. I will stand by that. Thirdly, if the warrant issue is true could it be because they can't find the accused? That the other warrants actually get served and processed? Seriously, though, that's some pretty audacious stuff.

The one caveat you made about not being able to vouch for the information was a good one and might be your saving grace. I am still following the source at this point each continues to quote that they got the info from some other conservative/political blog, as does this one now. . .

It's like those emails my aunt used to send about Bill Gates giving away all his money!

kevin said:

"Write your thoughts directly on the web site for all to see and discuss. Pass this along to your friends, family and especially to law enforcement and elected officials. Ask them why they are not doing more to protect our community from the criminal element of the illegal aliens." --- Welcome to Steve Franks California Political News and Views

Hahaha.

By the way, Charles, I just sent $3000 to Nigeria to claim the millions my long dead relative left me. You've got some there too but you have to post this comment on 30 websites in order to collect it.

Seriously though, there should be more effort on everyone's part to quote facts, not opinions as facts, when making the argument. Otherwise you're just part of a political think tank. . .O wait, that's right. Never mind.

Jack said:

Kevin:

That's an interesting article, but I'm not sure what to do with it. I just don't see how it is relevant to the conversation at hand.

Stay Puft Marshmallow Man said:

Kevin,

OMG, I was just contacted by a long lost Nigerian relative as well. I wonder if you and I are related...

I'm going to eat my dinner now. I'm cooking up a yummy tofu with soy sauce, and it smells just fabulous!

kevin said:

Yeah, Jack, that was my point. I'd mistakenly thought it was more relevant to the topic than it was, only to find it didn't necessarily have to do with illegal immigrants so much as those committing immigration offenses. I'll keep looking.

kevin said:

Stay, we gotta be related. Careful with all that soy product, though. It'll mess with your genetic make up, if you know what I mean. . .

Puft, ha! Good take, and touche, sir.

I quoted the Vox Day piece because of his explanation of the distinction between "immigrants" and "migrants" - a topic I've dealt with before. I'm not vouching for all Vox's details.

I'm not going to stand here and say the problem with illegal immigration is they are not Christians!

Also, I don't think "local citizens are committing more crimes than illegals - so what!" That was not my point. My point was there are specific trends that I think can be traced to illegals: My examples are the problems property owners are dealing with on the border, and the issue of gangs up here.

This is in my view incontrovertible: Illegal immigrants are trashing Cochise County as they come across, and they are feeding the growth of MS-13 here.

Americans may be guilty of embezzlement or burglary in some locales at a higher rate than illegal aliens. Illegal aliens are certainly causing increases in crime of their own. It's silly to write off the latter because of the former - especially if it was your truck that got burned or your relative that was hurt by a gang member. We're not going to say "Some Americans are still attempting to cheat the IRS, therefore all other crimes will be ignored."

Let's bring it down to the local level - Zimzo and Kevin please take note.

When local citizens see with their own eyes that illegal aliens are causing problems in their communities, the citizens have a right to take umbrage. The problems may be related to motor vehicle infractions or zoning infractions, or worse types of crimes. The essence of the problem is locals seeing an increase of incidents related to illegal residents.

In Herndon, the "driving without operators license" cases have increased over the past couple years. Care to take a guess about the overwhelming majority of violators? Care to take a guess what citizens think about this vis a vis what might happen if they are involved in a collision with an illegal driver?

Here in Loudoun, there are growing suspicions our sheriff's office is downplaying criminal activity by illegals. (Zimzo, take note here also).

A woman complains about violations and is told by a Loudoun County Sheriff's Deputy "why do you live in the barrio?"

The Sheriff was asked by county supervisors in October to provide information about the number of illegal immigrants detained at the adult detention center and so far has not provided any data (Kevin take note).

There seems to be a bias among local law enforcement personnel to downplay the impact of illegal aliens on local crime. We had a meeting with members of the gang task force and they went out of their way to paint a picture in which citizens have nothing to fear from gangs, although they admitted that the increase in gang activity was related to the increase in illegal immigrants.

Out Sheriff could have easily defused the issue by providing simple evidence the Loudoun County adult detention center does not currently house many illegal immigrants. Thus far, the Sheriff has not provided any data either way.

What do you think the silence means? Taking into account the fact the sheriff's office seems in every case to low key the illegal immigration issue, I think it means there IS in fact a strong representation by illegals among our county's detainees. Sheriff Simpson does not want to work more closely with ICE, and he could have bolstered his case immeasurably by simply reporting there are few illegal aliens in the ADC.

Crimes and other infractions of local regulations committed by illegal aliens have increased, in the eyes of locals. If the illegals were not here, those problems would not have occurred. Just because the local police still write out speeding tickets every day is no reason to think citizens will roll over for every other crime.

kevin said:

Joe! You've got me interest piqued!

First, to Charles, I swear to my left foot, if you google FBI Illegal Immigrant Statistics you can't find a single freaking non-opinionated site. It's exhausting. They all quote some LA Times article which "myth-busting" posts mention "this email has gone out in various forms with slight differences in percentages" but then the so called myth busting blogs are postered with conservative slog. It's not that I'm saying they're not true, you just can't google it and get anything from the other side.

The best bet you have is to go to the source of where the numbers supposedly came from, the FBI. However, when you go to their site, for national and local press releases (for Los Angeles in particular) as of the date of this commment, there are NO NUMBERS or PRESS RELEASES for any such bilge. You would think if the FBI was going to release that stuff they would at least do it on their own site.

Now, wildly tangentially on topic, Joe, I cannot say I know anything about your government there. The news has trickled down through old friends either still in the area or people who are familiar with the tumultuous 5+ years in your community, and that is the honest truth. From what I understand there was a somewhat mythopoetic coup d'etat in response to the handling of illegal immigration in the area. One day you'll have to tell me your version over email because I'm sure your story is a whopper. But as I'm sure you understand, everyone has an interest in their position, sometimes you tow the party line, sometimes you have your own individual interest. There may be a reason the sheriff is holding off on the numbers and it may not be what you think. In case you haven't googled "FBI Illegal Immigration Statistics" in a while, give it a try and see if you come up with anything you could legitimately call fact. It's a highly political topic. You're a highly political group.

I don't know that the reason is what you think it is. If I were the Sheriff I wouldn't give you the numbers one way or the other either. It also might not be my choice.

zimzo said:

Kevin is right. The Sheriff's silence could mean any number of things. I've already explained why a law enforcement officer would be reluctant to work with ICE.

Kevin is also right that if you want to persuade people, you need to present facts not "growing suspicions." When you quote someone like Vox Day or when Charles posts an email hoax it makes you less credible. It also reinforces the idea that your problems with immigrants stem from bias.

Finally, many of the "solutions" that anti-immigrant activists propose for the most part are unrealistic (mass deportation), ineffectual (the wall) or bound to cause other problems that are worse (using police as immigration agents, driving small businessmen out of business with heavy fines and other sanctions). You still have not made a good case as to why amnesty would not be a good solution. For example, the reason that there may be increased incidents of illegal immigrants driving without licenses is that Virginia made it more difficult for non-citizens to obtain licenses. The main effect of these changes was to increase the number of unlicensed drivers on the road.

I'm beginning to wonder if some of the flaccid arguments you, Charles and others have made here has something to do with the amount of soy you've been eating. But that's just a "growing suspicion" I have.

Jack said:

This presentation (http://jlarc.state.va.us/Meetings/November03/acclclr.pdf) indicates that foreign-born citizens commit more, but less serious crimes than the native population. However, it does not provide a breakdown of legal vs. illegal immigrants.

I'm surrounded by facts, each and every day. Go down to the Safeway in the evening or drive around Sterling Park on a Sunday morning. Drive around Elden St in Herndon any weekday morning, or visit the Herndon courthouse any Wednesday morning. Hey, that last would be a good one for this discussion!! But I'm not going to report on it until I can do so firsthand, so I won't even tell you about it right now.

I have a friend who owns land on the border she cannot use because the authorities cannot guarantee her safety there and the foot traffic has made it worthless for raising cattle. She does not have any statistics from an unbiased third party to verify this fact, however. Guess maybe she's just biased, huh. Just another extremist with growing suspicions she might be shot or that vegetation cannot grow in soil that has been compacted like asphalt.

Kevin, I understand the frustration in seeking statistical verification on who's committing what crimes. I can tell you, forget about it, for two reasons. 1) U.S. government studies are like 10 years after the fact, so in 2015 we'll find out about what is happening now. Maybe that's an exaggeration but not by much. 2) I think L.E. agencies are biased toward downplaying crime, period, and crime by illegals more so. The scenario here is one where an illegal involved in a traffic accident is as likely to be told "just go away" because the deputy does not know what to do with them, or the higher ups have suggested they look the other way. And investigative journalism certainly has no interest in telling that side of the story. So all that's left is the experience of citizens.

Zimzo, one ostensible reason for our Sheriff's reluctance to get involved more closely with ICE is he is afaid to lose his deputies to ICE. He lost something like 6 of them to some other federal agency a couple years ago. It has nothing to do with alienating any elements within the community - at least at the deputy level that's what I'm told the feeling is.

I agree with both of you, that real data is very important. I wish I was not so busy at work or I would spend more time on this and maybe visit the Loudoun courts a few mornings. But I am following up with the Sheriff's office communications guy to see what I can get out of him about the report he was supposed to make to the Board of Supervisors that never got delivered. I will of course post about it when I get something.

Hey, by the way, Snopes has been snoped, more than once. I don't know about what Charles posted but Snopes has been wrong before.

zimzo said:

I'm sure it's possible that Snopes has been wrong before but can you give me one example or is that just another Internet rumor you heard? I also posted a link to the LA Times. Sure they have been wrong before. But the fact remains that the statistics Charles copied have not been sourced at all and many of them don't even make sense. I hope your standards of proof are not that anything anyone says that supports your point of view is true until someone proves it's false.

Just google snopes wrong. Something came up in the news in the past month but I forget what it was. Anyway, I'd be surprised if you actually believe snopes has never been wrong. I hope YOUR standards are higher than that.

kevin said:

What's snopes? Seriously, I'll have to look it up. And I'm positive they've been wrong without even having visited. And there are a slew of liberal opinion blogs advertising opinion as fact. They're all in the same category in my mind.

But you think I'm bad? I'm known to a friend of mine as a hopeless qualitative research fanatic! Seriously. Of course he fancies himself to be the ultimate quantitative fanatic. Books sitting on his desk at this moment:

Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis

Fundamentals of Biostatistics

And a bunch of stuff I can't pronounce. He ridicules me for even owning a book (and only one) called Qualitative Research. It doesn't matter that my point in the argument is that one doesn't exist without the other. Of course your friend and her story about her land are significant. I'm not doing any qualitative research in your area. It seems clear that there are people in your area talking about increased crime by illegal aliens. What a great example of how qualitative research feeds into quantitative. Back that claim up. Then if something in the numbers seems curious, investigate qualitatively to look for more answers. But if you find that the quantitative research refutes your qualitative claims then you have to revisit what's actually going on and where the misperception lies. But I digress (like 2 paragraphs ago).

As far as your Sheriff, and the law enforcement system playing down crime, especially by illegal immigrants, if I gather correctly the idea is "not in OUR rural town we don't" have a problem? AND that they don't have the education and resources to deal with the problem to begin with? And, if they get training on dealing with the problem, they'll up and quit and go work for the feds (which has got to be more lucrative) so better not train them?

Well, if that's the issue then that's the issue, I guess. Like I said I have no idea about your politics and wouldn't propose to know. You mention investigative journalists as not being interested in the story. Really? Or are they just not interested in yours? Your town's story seems ripe for the investigating.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/05/AR2005080501710.html

But seriously, the reason I said I wouldn't be bringing any report to you if I were the Sheriff would be because you (collective) are more or less a PAC. If I were the Sheriff I wouldn't want to be your (collective) agent. I would want to be an agent of the State/County, not there to satiate your (collective) political desires. I would not want to be in your (collective) back pocket. I would be in the State's or County's back pocket. I would say, "I'm sorry but you're not running the show here". And I certainly wouldn't be giving you info that I knew you'd be using to further your (collective) political agenda because yours (collectively) and mine might be different. Nor would I be putting all of my arrests and possible convictions in jeopardy by lying down with lions, so to speak.

It doesn't mean the problem doesn't exist, because there seem to be some people who are upset. But then it might be your perception of the problem is not the problem they're seeing.

It could be a myriad of reasons.

Kevin, good points, all. One correction: The Sheriff wasn't going to be giving ME anything. He was supposed to report to the Board of Supervisors on the number of illegal aliens at the adult detention center (the BOS was pushing the ICE authority primarily for ADC officers, on the assumption that criminal illegals ought to be turned over to ICE).

Stay Puft Marshmallow Man said:

ironically, if we all spoke spanish, we wouldn't have to say "you" and "you (collective)," only "usted" and "ustedes"

kevin said:

whoop. . .what's that? Is my ignorance showing again?

Nice, Stay.

I'd use vosotros around here, of course, loving you all as much as I do.

Charles Author Profile Page said:

I'm pretty sure now those numbers are faulty, I just can't tell if they are someone's honest attempt to gleam information from existing databases that don't give direct data, or if they are just made up.

There's a lot out there about immigration, and it's really hard to figure out what's good and what's bad, on both sides.

I've got information from a congressman, and I don't even think I can trust THAT source, you would think that he would have the money and staff to research and figure out the truth.

I will say that, anecdotally, it is amazing how often you see a story in the paper, wonder if the person was illegal, and the next day the paper reports that the person WAS illegal.

I saw a report that illegal immigrants cause 13 fatal car crashes a day, and that just sounds wrong. Also that they commit 12 murders a day, that would be 36% of all murders, so that sounds wrong too, although it isn't totally absurd that a small population could be over-represented like that.

My point is that if you are already violating the law, and while doing so, you cause harm, it is fair to note that if we enforced the law we could have stopped that harm.

Underage unlicensed drivers cause very few accidents, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't crack down on them, or that doing so wouldn't prevent accidents.

Stay Puft Marshmallow Man said:

hmmm...

here's an interesting article about the problem with deporting ms-13 members. it comes with a nice multimedia deal, too. so check it out even if you're familiar with the argument that deportation has caused ms-13 to grow.

Puft, that is certainly a surprising and, for me, world-changing article. It's safe to say I will never look at the issue of illegal immigration in the same way again. Color me blown away. My mind has been hijacked back to the real world.

Speaking of mind, you and I have sure taken some giant steps in our relationship since we got the whole "mind meld" thing down.

If you want to concentrate on any more articles the rest of us should check out, telegraph away, my mind is in receiving mode.

Stay Puft Marshmallow Man said:

ok, I'm going to talk about gangs now.

this ms-13 thing is doubleplusungood. but I don't think it does any good to lump this in with the immigration debate. usually, it seems, when we lump stuff together we end up making it harder to resolve the details of what's going on.

there's the worker thing, caused by economics and NAFTA and all of that.

then there's the gangs making money from smuggling stuff thing. they're opportunists. they'd be there anyway, but the fact that so many workers want to come here is certainly good business for these gang types.

if we had a way for more honest workers to come here legitimately, the only folks sneaking across the border would be sneaking because they're smuggling drugs or whatever. having fewer people sneaking in, and a higher % of those people being involved in serious criminal activity, would make it easier for border patrol to pick these bad seeds out of the group, it seems. and at the same time these gangs wouldn't profit from the fact that the only way for workers to get here is to sneak in.

yes, more legal immigration would cut into ms-13 profits with a double edged sword.

That's a good point. I can't actually read the article you linked because I don't have the energy to register with the LAT and I would not have the bandwidth on my crappy Verizon "hi speed" DSL to watch the video anyway.

But I will take your word for it.

I am not fundamentally opposed to guest worker programs or even increased legal immigration - but I am HIGHLY opposed to them prior to vastly increased border enforcement and internal practices (ie business regulations) enforcement.

The 1986 immigration "reform" projected a maximum of 3 million additional illegal immigrants as a result of the amnesty. Instead we got more like 20 million.

Take that ratio and apply it to the current situation and you're talking 80 million plus.

That's why I say shut the border, then deal with the internal situation.

I'll say again: The magic of assimilation into American society which worked so well in the first half of the 20th century worked because there were 40 years of closed gates.

Leave a comment


Type the characters you see in the picture above.

Old Dominion Blog Alliance

Technorati

Technorati search

» Blogs that link here

ECOSYSTEM