Preliminary Thoughts on Tomorrow's Voting

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So what's going to happen tomorrow?

WTOP reports that, based on absentee ballots, tomorrow's turnout is not going to set any records.

The crummy weather we are having will undoubtedly not help the situation, especially with just the third early-dark evening of the year and morning and evening temperatures that will approach freezing out here in the hinterlands of Loudoun. Election Day will also be "Welcome to Winter Day." It will be tempting to get home from work and stay home.

Based on the weather, and the fact that so many of the issues in the various races are ones which make most voters' eyes glaze over, I think there could be a really low turnout on Loudoun. On the face of it, I think this scenario benefits the Democrats because there will likely be an even mix of political activists from both sides voting, plus the obligatory sprinkling of actual citizens - and this year, I think the latter will break Dem.

LI has a nice prediction thread going, I recommend you check it out.

I don't have a feel for any of the other Supervisor races, but I think Eugene Delgaudio is going to win Sterling District in a landslide. After this is all over, I will share some scans of the direct mail pieces his campaign has sent out. Pretty effective stuff.

I think the Sheriff and 33rd District Senate races will be the most telling. The wild card is the illegal immigration issue, and whether it motivates a sufficient number of citizens - especially in the voter-rich Broad Run and Dulles districts.

If not for the latest iteration of the local GOP weenie wing, Greg Ahlemann would have clear sailing to election as our next Sheriff. Unfortunately, former Republican Steve Simpson decided to play spoiler and make that victory a wee bit harder to attain, and make a Democrat Sheriff that much more likelier.

My personal preference - no surprise - is that all voters pay close attention to the immigration enforcement issue, and vote up or down on that one alone. Lots of other questions can be discussed and hashed out after we've ascertained whether we will still have a country or not.

If the issue has been solidly framed in the sphere of public opinion, that certain candidates are for and others against local immigration enforcement measures, I think the HSL-PAC "ticket" will achieve 90% success and particularly Greg Ahlemann will be our next Sheriff. However, this is by no means assured, because the immigration enforcement message has primarily been expounded on the Web and in various blogs, which are to the votership as a whole as Joe's Home Brew is to Budweiser.

If the turnout is ridiculously low, all bets are off. The only non-aligned people who bother to vote may indeed be those who care about immigration enforcement. The HSL-PAC lit drop campaign, which reached 30,000+ households, might bring an extra 3,000 voters to the polls countywide. It could make the difference.

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3 Comments

MARJORIE said:

MORNIN' JOE,

I AM REALLY HOPING THAT THIS YEAR MANY PEOPLE WILL TAKE THE TIME TO VOTE, TO MAKE IT A PRIORITY IN THEIR DAY.

VOTING IN LOUDOUN COUNTY HAS NEVER SET RECORDS FOR ATTENDANCE, PERHAPS THIS YEAR THE ISSUES WILL BRING PEOPLE OUT OF THEIR HOME FOR ONCE.

jacob said:

Joe,
I expect a larger than usual turnout. Last year the turnout for the Senate and house races was double the predicted amount and it rained ALL day. Today the rain will subside or end by noon.

Some candidates like Snow will go down in flames despite being in the pocket of the developers, or maybe because he is in the pocket ... hmmmm.

As you said, with a larger turnout anything is possible. BTW at LI most of the folks there expect Eugene to go down today, why are you expecting a landslide? Just curious, and I hope you are right.

Glad you enjoy the mail.

Turnout's going to be low, and it's going to be mostly Democrats. It'll be interesting to see who gets swamped by that and who stays afloat. I'm predicting some big upsets.

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